Using Weak Signals to Detect Troubled Projects
Every little bit helps in sniffing out projects that are destined for trouble. You would think that with 10+ years of project success data from Standish and others, we would have collectively improved things significantly. This is not the case.
So, I read with interest Paul Shoemaker and George Day’s article in the Spring 2009 MIT Sloan Management Review called How to Make Sense of Weak Signals with an eye toward applying these ideas to large projects (which as we know largely live in IT).
With the lessons of the subprime market crash as their lead-in example, the authors say that managers can be lulled into blindness and respond to weaker signals with the easiest or most convenient response, instead of one that anticipates the worst possible outcome. In fact, the authors say:
Our own research suggest that fewer than 20% of global companies have sufficient capacity to spot, interpret and act on the weak signals of forthcoming threats and opportunities.
It’s personal and organizational biases that cause blindness in management. Applied to managing individual projects and sets of related projects (or programs), I think there are some biases worth looking at within each of the organizations with which we work.
| Personal Biases | Organizational Biases | |
|---|---|---|
| Delivery and Value |
Business stakeholders understand what is in scope
|
Special incentives or compensation is not required for teams working on game-changing strategic initiatives |
| People |
Key people can focus and add value in a part-time role Smart IT people with significant experience are a sufficient proxy for business users We don’t need to backfill project team members; they can handle their “day jobs” along with project responsibilities |
Complex programs are just big projects Our project delivery skills are poor, therefore we should outsource project management Our vendors’ and business partners’ goals are aligned with ours |
| Interpreting Information |
Issues will go away if I just work harder |
Raising issues makes us look bad |
In the next post, 6 Ways to Find Weak Signals, I explore some ideas for overcoming our biases by recognizing and processing weak signals that our teams are sending us.
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