Using Weak Signals to Detect Troubled Projects

Three Compact Array Telescopes

Every little bit helps in sniffing out projects that are destined for trouble.  You would think that with 10+ years of project success data from Standish and others, we would have collectively improved things significantly.  This is not the case.

So, I read with interest Paul Shoemaker and George Day’s article in the Spring 2009 MIT Sloan Management Review called How to Make Sense of Weak Signals with an eye toward applying these ideas to large projects (which as we know largely live in IT).

With the lessons of the subprime market crash as their lead-in example, the authors say that managers can be lulled into blindness and respond to weaker signals with the easiest or most convenient response, instead of one that anticipates the worst possible outcome.  In fact, the authors say:

Our own research suggest that fewer than 20% of global companies have sufficient capacity to spot, interpret and act on the weak signals of forthcoming threats and opportunities.

It’s personal and organizational biases that cause blindness in management.  Applied to managing individual projects and sets of related projects (or programs), I think there are some biases worth looking at within each of the organizations with which we work.

Personal Biases Organizational Biases
Delivery and Value

Business stakeholders understand what is in scope

Special incentives or compensation is not required for teams working on game-changing strategic initiatives

People

Key people can focus and add value in a part-time role

Smart IT people with significant experience are a sufficient proxy for business users

We don’t need to backfill project team members; they can handle their “day jobs” along with project responsibilities

Complex programs are just big projects

Our project delivery skills are poor, therefore we should outsource project management

Our vendors’ and business partners’ goals are aligned with ours

Interpreting Information

Issues will go away if I just work harder

Raising issues makes us look bad

In the next post, 6 Ways to Find Weak Signals, I explore some ideas for overcoming our biases by recognizing and processing weak signals that our teams are sending us.

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  • John Polizzi

    Weak signals are a good way to sense the flow of the organization as projects execute. These predispositions to think in generalities are foolish comfort for the leadership team.

    CIO with Experience

  • John Polizzi

    Weak signals are a good way to sense the flow of the organization as projects execute. These predispositions to think in generalities are foolish comfort for the leadership team.

    CIO with Experience